Amb. Anthony Mukwita -18.04.24
If you are an interested in the beating heart of the geopolitical world beyond Zambia, the story of President Vladmir Putin´s re-election for a fifth sixth term in office may interest you.
If you are not, however, do not bother going beyond this paragraph because this short essay won´t make sense to you.
This is a story of the ´global balance of power´ that has seen the world divided into half—those that stand with the United Sates and European Union (EU) allies and those that stand with Russia, China, India, South Africa, or the BRICS+.
Lines are blurred here as the Putin prepares to become the longest serving leader of Russia after Joseph Stalin in 200 years, pausing a challenge to many things western along the way.
ENTER A ´NEW ERA´ OF PUTIN
Putin´s re-election means the Russian strongman who won by a landslide of more than 80 percent of votes cast is on a path of ruling the country for a record 30 years, aged 71.
His ´politically fantastic´ victory that has greatly annoyed the west means the invasion of Ukraine may continue beyond the current two years at a great cost to both Russia and Ukraine.
It also means an even greater cost to the United States and NATO allies that have been ´oiling´ the Ukrainian war machinery that seems to have failed to slow down the humongous army of Russia whose military personnel out number that of Ukraine, a smaller country than the largest country in eastern Europe.
WHY DID RUSSIA INVADE UKRAINE?
Ofcourse for those that have not followed the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, it began when Ukraine decided to join NATO, a move Russia felt threatened its national security because of a 2000km borderline it shares with Ukrainian cousins.
Putin warned of an invasion, but the West took no heed and allowed Ukraine to apply for a NATO membership, a red flag for him.
Now hundreds of Russians and perhaps more Ukrainians have died since the invasion while the economies of both have suffered but mostly that of Ukraine.
DID US SANCTIONS SHAKE RUSSIA?
Russia under Putin has experienced buoyancy in the economy that has withstood massive sanctions by the US led allies and doubled the prices of heating in Europe.
China, India, and North Korea has ramped up buying off Russia´s gas which is three times more than US gas reserves at about 1668 trillion cubic feet.
Russia also has about 60 years of oil in its deposits capable of outlasting any conflict according to statistics.
Consequently, western sanctions against Russia under Putin have fallen flat on their face.
Sadly, the invasion of Ukraine continues, lives are lost, and infrastructure is damaged but this could come to an end as a Presidential election looms in the United States where 81 year old Biden is likely to face off with arch nemesis 77 year Donald Trump in November.
Trump likes Putin, sees him as an ally and feels little empathy for Ukraine.
He has promised to end the Russia Ukraine war on ´day one´ among many crazy things that could also mean deporting thousands of ´aliens´ in America if re-elected.
The sad truth is like, Israel v Gaza, Ukraine has no third leg to stand on in armed conflict against Russia and Putin.
WILL UKRAINE AND GAZA CONFLICTS AFFECT BIDEN?
President Biden must make a choice between winning an election by abandoning Ukraine and Israel or losing the poll by supporting both according to analysts. It’s tough call.
In Africa, countries like Zambia and South Africa have found themselves at crossroads on whom to support between the west and Russia, even Israel as the global power balance turns slowly.
South Africa for instance has taken Israel to the UN international court of justice (ICJ) for apparent genocide acts against Palestinians in Gaza where about 31,800 Palestinians have died in six months and supported Russia in international relations at the UN while the jury remains out on Zambia.
ENTER THE DRAGON IN THE FRAY
As Washington, London, and Paris grapple with Putin´s landslide victory, Beijing was the first to congratulate the Russian leader on his slam dunk as victory drums reverberated across Moscow.
President Xi Jinping said, “your re-election is full demonstration of the support Russian people have of you. I believe that under your leadership Russia will record greater achievements in national development and construction.”
Russia and China declared a “no limits” relationship recently to the chagrin of the western foes as a silent ´cold war ‘emerges especially over Gaza and Ukraine.
Hard to say whom to stand for in this geopolitical war but one clear thing is that the US is no longer calling the shots the way they did in the past without being check-mated by Russia and China´s growing might.
There´s no one single power point now, nations can make a choice of whom to support or summon for help between the west and east.
The proverb then cometh to life that ´when elephants fight the grass suffers´ as countries like Zambia are caught between the west and the east.
Will Zambia congratulate Putin without annoying Washington?
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Ambassador Anthony Mukwita’ s latest book ´China in Africa the Zambia story’ provides further insights on geopolitics. It is available on Amazon, Takealot, Grey Matter and Bookworld locally.
